What's Holding 3D Back? (A BD)

[Blu-Dog]

Originally Posted by HDTV1080P

This was an interesting article to read about 3-D.

http://www.avrev.com/home-theater-feature-articles/video-related-articles/whats-holding-3d-back.html

From the article:

The industry as a whole should be applauded for the steps it’s taking towards compatibility. Some people already own 3D capable televisions and they don’t even know it. Many others have Blu-ray players that can be made 3D compatible, such as Sony’s Playstation 3. The rollout of new 3D televisions and players all working on the HDMI 1.4 format is on its way. Anyone that’s happy with a less than 1080p 3D signal can use HDMI 1.3 components that they may not even have to upgrade. It’s a fantastic setup for consumers.

Manufacturers have been treating 3-D like a free-fire marketing zone. The current mantra is that you need a new television, and a new player, to get the "full 3-D experience". The PS3 compatibility angle still hasn't been fully explained by Sony, leaving people wondering if it will be full 1080p.

Mitsubishi has already announced a "black box" making some of their current models "3-D compatible".

The manufacturers rushed this out, and very poorly. Their interest is in trying to reboot the entire market to buy new sets - extremely unlikely. Since broadcasters, interested in streaming media, may use a different standard than hard media like Blu-Ray, the picture is even fuzzier.

Broadcasters don't have skin in the game for 1080p. They have advertisers to please, who don't want to wait until the 71 million people who bought HDTV's in the last four years, toss them out and by new, "compatible" models.

Unless all of the industry groups do something fast - the BDA, manufacturers, broadcasters, and media developers - 3-D is going to be viewed with intense suspicion by the general public for a long time. Suspicion is the rule now, not the exception, and the main enthusiasts for 3-D are those with discretionary income that can manage discarding or "cascading" older equipment to get the newer gear.

A good combination of player and television, of large size, will cost between $1,200 to $1,600, just as it does now. When that is up to four months of discretionary income for the average family, adoption of a completely new platform is a long way off for most folks. A tidal wave of 3-D adoption simply isn't going to happen if this is the case.

The worst thing I've seen is the Marie Antoinette view from aficiandos, actually hoping that 3-D will carry some cachet of exclusivity for early adopters. After the industry misfires over HD-DVD versus Blu, it would seem that cheering on an expensive and confusing format split would be anathema to fans of Blu-Ray.

3-D acceptance has been very slow, even on this forum. In threads and news article responses (not including mine, you guys), it's been roughly 3-1 for the non-enthusiasts, most of whom have significant investment in technology that is supposedly incompatible.

Frankly, I'm thinking that current gear that is HDMI 1.3 compatible will be usable for 3-D, at least in 1080i mode, which would speed up adoption considerably. I'm hoping 3-D does happen - without industry greed clogging up the pipes, directed at scoring huge revenue from up-front hardware sales.

Other issues, such as the huge section of the public that have prescription eyewear, also needs to be addressed. Something needs to happen fast, and the rush to present gee-whiz press interest at CES this year just made a mess of things.

Perhaps someone will do a better job, and soon. I am not optimistic about it, but I don't completely discount the possibility that the powers-that-be will realize they have a golden opportunity, if the bother to take the long view.