Universal Studios under pressure to support Blu-ray?

[Anthony P]

Are you saying a combo doesn't have the capacity or there isn't enough media?

he is saying that there is not enough production capacity. A combo is not a normal disk, it is the equivalent of a DVD-18 (dual layer dual sided DVD) and that needs special equipment that is not available everywhere and not available on all HD DVD production lines

asking to make 20M copies of a combo instead of 20k is a big difference on demand.

PS just for the fun of it search for how many replicators can do DVD-18

There is also the fact that a combo costs a lot more to produce and replicate. so instead of making more money (which is what studios want with HD) they would make less

The way things are today is different from how they'll be tomorrow. Even if blu-ray was the only format, we wouldn't see much more sales than we do today - some, but not a whole lot. We'd also probably see player prices higher.

disagree, a war always adds anxiety to people, IF HD DVD was gone people would feel more comfortable buying players and building their collection.

[mshulman]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

he is saying that there is not enough production capacity. A combo is not a normal disk, it is the equivalent of a DVD-18 (dual layer dual sided DVD) and that needs special equipment that is not available everywhere and not available on all HD DVD production lines

asking to make 20M copies of a combo instead of 20k is a big difference on demand.

PS just for the fun of it search for how many replicators can do DVD-18

There is also the fact that a combo costs a lot more to produce and replicate. so instead of making more money (which is what studios want with HD) they would make less

ok. but while it may not be capable or feasible today, it should be in the future.

disagree, a war always adds anxiety to people, IF HD DVD was gone people would feel more comfortable buying players and building their collection.

Yes, but with the market in the US only being 40% of homes anyway, how much of a difference do you really see it making? You do realize that nearly half of that 40% are even watching things in HD today anyway.

The majority of the consumers likely won't buy any player until its under $100.

[MatrixS2000]

Originally Posted by mshulman

Yes, but with the market in the US only being 40% of homes anyway, how much of a difference do you really see it making? You do realize that nearly half of that 40% are even watching things in HD today anyway.

The majority of the consumers likely won't buy any player until its under $100.

Where do you come up with this $ amount? How do you know what the majority of consumers feel is the right price for HD player entry???

Households are going to HDTV, they will figure out that they will need an HD player to watch movies in HD...if they still have a SDTV most have component in - they can still use that!

[mshulman]

Originally Posted by MatrixS2000

Where do you come up with this $ amount? How do you know what the majority of consumers feel is the right price for HD player entry???

Households are going to HDTV, they will figure out that they will need an HD player to watch movies in HD...if they still have a SDTV most have component in - they can still use that!

Its an educated guess. What number do you think the "average" consumer would be happy with?

And do you really think people are going to get an (at this time) expensive player to watch something that is going to look the same as their DVD's? You could buy audio CD's before owning a CD player, but how many people do that??

[MatrixS2000]

Originally Posted by mshulman

Its an educated guess. What number do you think the "average" consumer would be happy with?

No idea - I bought when I was ready. I don't speak for others

And do you really think people are going to get an (at this time) expensive player to watch something that is going to look the same as their DVD's? You could buy audio CD's before owning a CD player, but how many people do that??

The HD player is the cheapest part of the HD experience.

Are you sure you have a HD player? Because DVD looks nowhere as good as BR. Ditto for the sound...

See above...

[Anthony P]

As far as your last comment, BR will probably not overcome DVD within its lifetime. Look how long its taken DVD to get where it is and when it first was released, EVERY household could make use of it. Right now less than 40% of households can. Its going to be niche until its replacement arrives. We'll probably need new TV's for that too though

that is wrong. Back in 97 many people had TVs with only antenna input, in order to see DVD you needed to either get a TV with inputs or a modulator. As for BD you are wrong there as well. Let's take the worst case scenario, someone has an old TV with just RF, he had his DVD connected so he bought a modulator that takes composite as an input, can he connect a brand new BD player to that set using the same modulator? the answer is yes.


so simply put anyone that can watch DVDs today on their TV can watch BD (not the best setup but they can watch) anyone that had a TV and just bought a DVD player might have needed something to connect.

The other difference is that anyone that used the VCR for more then just movie watching (which is everyone) still needed a VCR even if he bought a DVD player (because DVD was none recordable at the time) since then the VCR has dropped in importance (HDD recorders.....) and so “playback only” is not as bad as it used to be (not to mention that in some areas you can already buy BD recorders if one wants a do-all device)

[mshulman]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

that is wrong. Back in 97 many people had TVs with only antenna input, in order to see DVD you needed to either get a TV with inputs or a modulator. As for BD you are wrong there as well. Let's take the worst case scenario, someone has an old TV with just RF, he had his DVD connected so he bought a modulator that takes composite as an input, can he connect a brand new BD player to that set using the same modulator? the answer is yes.

That's a fair point. I think the cost of getting a modulater differs quite a bit from getting an HD set though. And lets not forget - I don't need convincing on the benfits of either - that's why I own both. Its the average consumer that will need to buy into this and they think DVD is awesome. Heck, my brother-in-law thinks his 480P projector is High Def!

[Anthony P]

ok. but while it may not be capable or feasible today, it should be in the future.

not atv all look at DVD-18, why do you think we have so many two disk sets if it would be easier (aznd acceptable) to have DVD-18s?

might be possible? yes
should be possible? no
will likely be possible? no

The majority of the consumers likely won't buy any player until its under $100.

agree and 100$ is acceptable if there is no war

Yes, but with the market in the US only being 40% of homes anyway, how much of a difference do you really see it making?

that 40% is growing fast and in 2009 will grow faster when the all digital rule comes in.

My point was you were 100% wrong when you said that an old TV was usable with DVD but not with BD. will someone with a 20year old 20" TV connected to an RF modulator see as big a difference as someone with a 10' 1080p projector using HDMI? obviously not, but he can still use it.

A few weeks ago I brought my PS3 to my sisters cottage, some games and some movies. I used the composite connector that came with the PS3 because I did not want to go in back and unplug and the TV there is not HD (but I am guessing there might have been component) The picture still looked better then DVD (and the sound was better as well). I even brought my Talladega nights and we compared the DVD to the BD

You do realize that nearly half of that 40% are even watching things in HD today anyway.

now imagine the smiles ion their faces when they finally see what their display can do?

[UltimateFighter]

www.psu.com just did a story on Universal possibly switching...check it out

http://www.psu.com/node/12101?

[Anthony P]

Come on.. DVD's been out what? 17 years? It takes quite a bit of time for prices to drop that low.

nope, came out in 97 that is 10y
and prices are not at 100$ but 20$ (ten years later)

We can agree to disagree I'd just like to know though how anyone sees blu-ray replacing DVD within 15 years. DVD took approximately 8 years to surpass VHS in rentals.

google is your friend, you should really search before posting complete nonsense

DVD surpassed VHS in 2002 (<=5y) http://dvd.box.sk/index.php?pid=hd_n...pol=0&xid=7064

And DVD rentals surpassed VHS in 2003
http://blogcritics.org/archives/2003/03/21/100102.php

it is actually just shy of 6 years

DVD was a no brainer in comparison to VHS.

not at all because he still needed his VCR to play his old movies, home movies, old tapes TV broadcasts…. Yes DVD had some niceties, like the ones you mentioned, but it also made his life more complicated because he ended up with a more complicated set up, if you want to watch X on tape you needed to do XXXX if Y on DVD you needed to do YYYY (and some setups were even more complicated because there was cable boxes and other stuff there as well)

[PrinceLH]

Amazing how the HD DVD leaning AVS Forums mods are locking all of the threads that discuss this article. They're sounding more like the left leaning media everyday. Stiffle what they don't agree with.

[patrick99]

Originally Posted by PrinceLH

Amazing how the HD DVD leaning AVS Forums mods are locking all of the threads that discuss this article. They're sounding more like the left leaning media everyday. Stiffle what they don't agree with.

Yes, amazing, isn't it.

[WriteSimply]

By the way, if Universal is feeling the pressure, who/where is the pressure from?

Certainly not us BD consumers. Other Hollywood studios? Universal's owners? Retailers? CEs?

What I'm interested to know is how Graffeo can justify sticking to HD-DVD when GalleryPlayer just announced its move to make its content available ONLY on BD.

“GalleryPlayer’s move into the Blu-ray disc market underscores the company’s focus on providing consumers with easy access to the world's finest high-definition art and photography,” said Paul Brownlow, GalleryPlayer president. “HD Lifestyle Imagery demands the highest quality visual presentation and consumer experience, which Blu-ray discs deliver. Blu-ray Discs are clearly the preferred choice, currently outselling HD DVDs, and we’re launching our most popular content on the most popular platform. It’s a winning combination for GalleryPlayer, Blu-ray and millions of consumers.”

fuad

[Anthony P]

That's a fair point. I think the cost of getting a modulater differs quite a bit from getting an HD set though.

but he does not need an HD set, the same way that the guy with a DVD player did not need to use component, even at that DVD is better on an HD set then SD isn't it? why do you think RF modulator and SD TV was good enbough for DVD but now it is impossible for someone to eventualy buy a BD player and connect it to an SD set.

What you are missing are three things

1) as player prices drop making DVD player becomes a waste for everyone (this was not true for VHS that had a 20y history and until recently was the only way to tape

2) as people start renting and buying BD releasing titles on DVD becomes less enticing

3) DVD-> BD is seamless, the persons habits don't need to change, that was not true with VHS-> DVD. let's assume in 2years someone makes a 100$ BD player, let's say all studios are releasing on BD, let's also say someone's DVD player just broke and he went to the store, he has seen BD creep on the shelves to where it is 1/2, his rental place has the same number of BDs and DVDs the shelves are full of BD players and there are 3 DVD models at 20$, 30$ and 50$, is he more likely to dismiss the facts and go with an other DVD player or say I will buy that cheap 100$ BD player just to be on the safe side, because DVD is losing ground?

some might go for 20$ DVD player but most will go with the 100$ BD player and the snowball keeps on growing.

Its the average consumer that will need to buy into this and they think DVD is awesome. Heck, my brother-in-law thinks his 480P projector is High Def!

I don't know what is the issue with your BiL but the average consumer follows the flow and is scared to be left out when something new comes out. They are not complete morons. We are all average consumers in stuff we don't care as much, it does not mean we are all driving Ladas and eating at the cheapest fast food place every day. Just that some people know much more then us on those other subjects where we are J6P. It also means that when we want something where we are in the J6P category we ask people that know more on the subject what to buy (and that is what AV-J6P does with AV)

[ps3andlovinit]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

but he does not need an HD set, the same way that the guy with a DVD player did not need to use component, even at that DVD is better on an HD set then SD isn't it? why do you think RF modulator and SD TV was good enbough for DVD but now it is impossible for someone to eventualy buy a BD player and connect it to an SD set.

What you are missing are three things

1) as player prices drop making DVD player becomes a waste for everyone (this was not true for VHS that had a 20y history and until recently was the only way to tape

2) as people start renting and buying BD releasing titles on DVD becomes less enticing

3) DVD-> BD is seamless, the persons habits don't need to change, that was not true with VHS-> DVD. let's assume in 2years someone makes a 100$ BD player, let's say all studios are releasing on BD, let's also say someone's DVD player just broke and he went to the store, he has seen BD creep on the shelves to where it is 1/2, his rental place has the same number of BDs and DVDs the shelves are full of BD players and there are 3 DVD models at 20$, 30$ and 50$, is he more likely to dismiss the facts and go with an other DVD player or say I will buy that cheap 100$ BD player just to be on the safe side, because DVD is losing ground?

some might go for 20$ DVD player but most will go with the 100$ BD player and the snowball keeps on growing.




I don't know what is the issue with your BiL but the average consumer follows the flow and is scared to be left out when something new comes out. They are not complete morons. We are all average consumers in stuff we don't care as much, it does not mean we are all driving Ladas and eating at the cheapest fast food place every day. Just that some people know much more then us on those other subjects where we are J6P. It also means that when we want something where we are in the J6P category we ask people that know more on the subject what to buy (and that is what AV-J6P does with AV)

Pretty well sums up it all for me as well. Thanks...you articulated it much better than I would have.

[MyXBR3isMygf]

Univeral going neutral...I'd love to see the reaction on the faces of Toshiba and MS.

As for penetration: yes it's slow, but comparing these consumers to those during the vhs/dvd era is useless. Anthony P said it well.

HDTV sales have been strong, and bluray player sales have dropped significantly.

At a certain price point people will cease to upgrade dvd players and get a next-gen dvd player that plays one of the new formats AND makes their currect dvds look better. There would be NO reason not to. And that's what will happen eventually.

How quick do you think the adoption of DVD would have been had you been able to buy a device that plays your VHS tapes (and upscales them), AND plays dvds? This is a different market, and a different transition. Despite the fact that the average consumer knows little about electronics in general, they still a lot more than people during the days of VHS.

[mshulman]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

but he does not need an HD set, the same way that the guy with a DVD player did not need to use component

He may not NEED it to use Blu-ray, but he does need it to get the benefits from it. I don't need an HDTV for an HD enabled cable box, but I'm not going to get the same benefit if I did have the HDTV. There is a noticable difference, but not enough for most to justify the added cost.

What you are missing are three things

1) as player prices drop making DVD player becomes a waste for everyone (this was not true for VHS that had a 20y history and until recently was the only way to tape

Buying a player becomes a waste, but making use of existing players isn't

2) as people start renting and buying BD releasing titles on DVD becomes less enticing

This is so far from today. We'd have to be closer to 50% DVD vs BD. I'd speculate that to get here, we'd need over 70% or more of homes to have HDTV's.

3) DVD-> BD is seamless, the persons habits don't need to change, that was not true with VHS-> DVD. let's assume in 2years someone makes a 100$ BD player, let's say all studios are releasing on BD, let's also say someone's DVD player just broke and he went to the store, he has seen BD creep on the shelves to where it is 1/2, his rental place has the same number of BDs and DVDs the shelves are full of BD players and there are 3 DVD models at 20$, 30$ and 50$, is he more likely to dismiss the facts and go with an other DVD player or say I will buy that cheap 100$ BD player just to be on the safe side, because DVD is losing ground?

It isn't seamless. Not when you consider all the places DVD exists today. People will need to change habits. They need to consider - Are we only going to watch this movie at home or will the kids want to watch it in the car? Their room...etc.

I don't know what is the issue with your BiL but the average consumer follows the flow and is scared to be left out when something new comes out. They are not complete morons.

We're a long ways from people feeling left out with Blu-ray. Even if Universal did switch to blu-ray tomorrow.

And for what its worth, I'll be happy if I'm wrong. If everyone was blu-ray (or HD DVD) tomorrow instead of the 3 formats we have today, that would be great. II just think its going to be a very long time before this happens.