Predictions - Blu-ray wins war late January 2010

[TruBlu2]

Officially over in 08 sometime. Essentially its over now. hehe

[MacHaggis]

One can never tell what exactly is going to happen... there are some variables that we cannot currently see.

Best strategy is to inform, buy and stay on guard.

Something worth discussing would be...

What if the BDA were to offer something like a $50 rebate towards the purchase of a BD player with the trade-in of a DVD player and perhaps a greater credit for the trade-in of a HD DVD player...

This was done with VCRs a few years ago.

Bogdan

[CptGreedle]

here is how I see it...

The possible EARLIEST official end to the war:
WB goes Blu in 1Q '08
Universal goes neutral in 1Q '08
Paramount goes neutral in mid '08
PS3 price drop and better promotion, sales go way up
War ends with Blu victor in time for holiday shopping season '08

Latest possible ending:
WB goes Blu in 2Q '08
Uni and Para remain HD-DVD exclusive in '08
Sales of PS3 and BD players drop and sales go up
4Q '08, BD sales increase/dominate
New deal for HD-DVD made to keep exclusive content
BD continues to dominate overall sales in '09
Sometime mid '09 Uni and Para go neutral
Final sales battle in 4Q '09
War ends with Blu victor in 1Q '10

Most Likely end of war:
WB goes Blu in 1Q '08
Uni goes neutral as early as 1Q '08, as late as 3Q '08
Holiday '08, Blu sales dominate again
Para goes neutral 1Q '09
End of was with Blu victor for Holidays '09

WORST (unlikely) outcome:
WB goes HD '08
Para and Uni stay HD '08
HD-DVD makes deals to bring more content and more exclusives in '08/'09
BD starts to loose sales to HD-DVD 4Q '08/'09
BD makes come back but to a stalemate
HD wins war by buying off studios and BD remains niche product as computer and game disc '10

[m_tyson]

i few months ago i offered a cash bet to an HD DVD co-worker that BD will have more than 75% market share by the end of 2008, and he took it. of course, BD already has about an 85% market share vs. HD DVD on optical disc usage, but I think the co-worker was only considering the movie market. either way, an easy bet to win.

[sphdle1]

Originally Posted by gerardfma

While I quite agree for NA, where did you get such figures for Europe? We have very detailed figures per western eruropean countries and manufacturers of BD and HD-DVD players, and they are certainly not showing a 10:1 ratio :-(

That was just my best guess prediction, based on how I'm hearing blu-ray outselling HD DVD in Europe 4 ot 1 currently (unless I got that info wrong...?).

Anyway, what is up with the fact that Sony/Blu-ray seems to be getting all the brunt of the EU's investigation, when it's HD DVD that outwordly made a payoff to Paramount...what with that? Why aren't they going after HD DVD first and foremost for making bribes? It's not hard to figure out why Blu-ray movies are outselling HD DVD. Blu-ray has close to 2 million players, whereas HD-DVD are in the hundreds of thousands. The first time I ever heard about blu-ray was when a buddy of mine got his new PS3 last christmas and started watching blu-ray movies on it. If there are more than twice as many players (counting PS3, stand alones and computer drives) for blu-ray, and almost twice as many movie studios supporting blu-ray, and therefore nearly twice as many movies out, then it's common sense that blu-ray is going to outsell by a large margin. And in Europe or Asia, their consumers may think differently thus making the gap even wider. This is common sense that Sony's move with the PS3 (especially including free movies with them), has ultimately won them the war in the end, and why they currently have such a wide lead that's widening. So why is the EU investigating Sony for being smart business minded, and not first investigating HDDVD for making payoffs...?

[sphdle1]

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

here is how I see it...
WORST (unlikely) outcome:
WB goes HD '08
Para and Uni stay HD '08
HD-DVD makes deals to bring more content and more exclusives in '08/'09
BD starts to loose sales to HD-DVD 4Q '08/'09
BD makes come back but to a stalemate
HD wins war by buying off studios and BD remains niche product as computer and game disc '10

I was pretty much on the same thinking as you which is why I changed my prediction to your third section of ending the war in early 2009.
However I think the last outcome you mentioned[WORST (unlikely) outcome:], is not even unlikely, but rather not a possibility because: the EU will not allow HDDUD to make any more deals, and think we're going to see them botch the Paramount deal as it stands in the near future, because it being a payoff, it's not condusive to fair and proper competition (for Europeans anyway). Anyone agree, disagree with this?

[sphdle1]

Originally Posted by m_tyson

i few months ago i offered a cash bet to an HD DVD co-worker that BD will have more than 75% market share by the end of 2008, and he took it. of course, BD already has about an 85% market share vs. HD DVD on optical disc usage, but I think the co-worker was only considering the movie market. either way, an easy bet to win.

Be careful with Bets & Bribes, you might get investigated by the EU for being smart...lol

[sphdle1]

Originally Posted by MacHaggis

What if the BDA were to offer something like a $50 rebate towards the purchase of a BD player with the trade-in of a DVD player and perhaps a greater credit for the trade-in of a HD DVD player...

That sounds like a great incentive. BD will win regardless, but this would sure speed it up, and would be better to see BD do this first, than to read about HDDUD doing it, and having them prolong the war.

Is there anyone who can get this idea to a BDA/Sony insider...?

[Beta-guy]

I'm anticipating June 08 victory my theory goes like this after the 4Q Beating of HD-DVD by Blu-ray, Warner goes BD exclusive, in January or Febuary, Universal noticed the trend in 4Q as well and seeing Warner as the last straw moves over, march is my guess, Paramount/dreamworks is the only major active studio releassing movies and they buy out thier contract and release on BD. Wienstien is still officially HD-DVD but they haven't released anything on HD-DVD for a while now...

[Clark Kent]

Before the Paramount debacle this war was over Jan. 1, 2008. By buying off Payolamount, HD DVD stayed the executioner another 9 months. It will be clear by Fall of 2008 that Blu-ray is clearly the choice to replace DVD as the mass market home video format. The PS3 will only be selling better and better as more great games are released.

[Lord_Stewie]

I do know for a fact that MS, and it is a maybe are looking to release the new Xbox 360 with a built in HDDVD drive in late 2009 early 2010. so I would say the war has to be over for bluray being the champ soon. Hopefully, sometime around 2009 before it becomes official.

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/microsof...in-hd-dvd/4838

[HMtheJJ]

2008 Summer, BluRay will have total victory and by 2009 CES u will see no HD DVDs anymore!!